It’s 2024 and Hurricane Helen has devastated Hampton Roads, Virginia. Local naval facilities are paralyzed and crucial U.S. naval assets like the John F. Kennedy aircraft carrier (CVN-79) are severely damaged.
The hurricane and residual fallout from Covid-19 as well as labor unrest and economic concerns further complicate recovery efforts and future naval readiness.
Private industry titans, government and defense representatives, union leaders and local media are all at the scene.
Everyone wants America to succeed, but each person has their own motivations and personal objectives. Can they collectively find a path forward that helps their interests and the nation’s?”
Thus begins the first publicly available Riskgaming scenario designed by my guest today: Danny Crichton.
Danny Crichton is a man of many talents. He’s got a background in computer science, has worked in the worlds of foreign policy, was a managing editor at Techcrunch, and now serves as Head of Editorial at Lux Capital.
As Lux’s de-facto games master, Danny also devises their Riskgames: strategic simulations that immerse players in complex scenarios reflecting real-world challenges and dynamics. These games – whose players include senators, major generals, congressmen and, think-tank CEOs – include scenarios like ‘Hamptons at the Cross-Roads’ (that deals with climate change and maritime security) and ‘Powering Up’ (that deals with China’s global EV dominance).
Danny and I discuss the origins of Riskgaming and the lessons he’s learned in high-stakes games with tech founders and government officials. Plus, we riff on our shared Minnesotan roots, and discuss ways to combat the uncertain fog of war in our careers.
I hope you enjoy this insightful conversation as much as I did. For the full transcript, episode takeaways, and bucketloads of other goodies designed to make you go, “Hmm, that’s interesting!”, check out our Substack - https://newsletter.osv.llc/.
Important Links:
- Danny's Twitter - https://x.com/DannyCrichton
- Danny's LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/dannycrichton/
- Danny's Personal Website - https://www.dannycrichton.com/
- Lux Securities Newsletter - https://www.luxcapital.com/archive/newsletter
- The Riskgaming Initiative - https://www.luxcapital.com/riskgaming
Show Notes:
0:00:00 Intro
0:00:58 Main podcast
0:01:58 Origins of Riskgaming
0:03:54 The Different Play Styles between Technologists and Policymakers
0:06:34 One-off games vs. Iterative games
0:09:17 The Game Theoretic Foundations of Riskgaming
0:14:39 It’s All About Tough Decisions
0:17:25 Parable of the First Mover Disadvantage
0:23:12 The Importance of Incentives
0:26:07 Why Insurance Companies are Obsessed with Truth in the Market
0:30:22 How AIs Can Cut Through Bureaucratic Slog
0:39:05 How Danny Builds The Scenarios
0:45:13 Why Riskgaming Teaches Better Decision Making
0:47:52 Danny’s Thoughts on Intellectual Humility
0:59:29 Danny and Jim’s Minnesotan Heritage
1:03:57 Danny’s experience launching Techcrunch+
1:11:02 Facing the Fog of War
1:13:43 The Importance of Agility
1:22:37 Danny as Emperor of the World
Books Mentioned:
- Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid; by Douglas Hofstadter
- Left Behind: A New Economics for Neglected Places; by Paul Collier
